After a few months of stepping away from this blog, I’ve decided it’s time to return to writing. These months of absence have certainly not stopped the world from moving forward, and for this ‘return post’, I wanted to take a step back and reflect.
The last five years have brought about unprecedented global upheavals, with changes that could be likened to a “tectonic shift” in modern history. We have seen a cascade of events that have fundamentally altered the global landscape, impacting businesses, societies, and economies in ways few could have predicted. These shifts have not just been sudden but also wide-reaching, affecting everything from technology and international relations to economic stability and market dynamics.
Since 2019, the world has witnessed numerous shocks and disruptions, starting with the COVID-19 crisis, which altered the course of businesses and lives on a global scale. The pandemic triggered one of the most significant disruptions to the world economy since World War II. Entire industries were brought to a standstill, supply chains were broken, and the way we work fundamentally changed, possibly forever. Since then, ongoing wars in Ukraine and Israel (and possibly to the entire Middle East) have heightened geopolitical tensions. These conflicts have strained international alliances and disrupted global energy and food supplies, causing ripples throughout economies far removed from the battlefields. Meanwhile, China’s increasing threat to Taiwan poses yet another potential flashpoint that could reshape international relations. This ongoing situation is not just about regional power but about the global supply of critical technologies, particularly semiconductors, upon which modern economies depend.
Across Europe and the U.S., political and social crises have continued to unfold, challenging the very structure of governance in these regions. Populism, polarization, and growing discontent with political systems have contributed to instability, leading to questions about the future of democracies that have long been considered stable. Business failures have surged as many companies face financial hardship, leading to an unprecedented rise in bankruptcies. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence has emerged as a powerful force, although its financial returns remain uncertain for now (despite eye-watering company valuations). AI’s transformative potential is undeniable, but companies are still grappling with how to turn innovation into sustainable profitability. Similarly, the electric vehicle sector has grown rapidly, but its long-term viability is still in question, particularly as legacy automakers struggle to transition and infrastructure challenges remain.
At the same time, the world is confronting a demographic crisis that is only now becoming more visible (as already mentioned multiple times on this blog), with labor shortages adding pressure to economies. Declining birth rates in many developed countries have led to an aging workforce and a shortage of skilled labor. This demographic shift is exacerbating already existing economic challenges and pushing governments and businesses to rethink strategies for maintaining productivity and growth. To complicate matters further, we’re also facing a debt crisis (rings a bell France?), characterized by sharp fluctuations in interest rates that have added volatility to the global economy. Rising interest rates, designed to combat inflation, have created new challenges for businesses and governments alike, particularly in regions heavily reliant on borrowing – for those, any reverse course of action may come too little, too late.
Amid these disruptions, we have seen some unexpected winners and losers emerge. Intel, once a leader in its industry, is now in sharp decline, while Nvidia has skyrocketed to become one of the top five companies globally by market capitalization—a shift that few would have predicted a decade ago. Nvidia’s success has been driven largely by its dominance in AI and graphics processing, both of which are at the forefront of the technological revolution. Consider, too, the case of ExxonMobil and Apple. In 2014, the two companies had nearly the same market value. Fast forward to today, and Apple’s market cap is six times larger than that of ExxonMobil. The tech giant’s remarkable rise symbolizes the broader shift from traditional industries like oil and gas to the digital economy, where innovation is driving unprecedented growth.
Despite the challenges of recent years, my message is not one of pessimism. On the contrary, there are significant opportunities on the horizon, but to seize them, we must be prepared. It’s essential to avoid falling into the numerous “tectonic faults” that threaten to destabilize businesses and markets. Those who remain agile and ready to adapt will find new paths to success in a world where change is the only constant.
What does it mean to be prepared in this new environment? First, supply chain flexibility is key. Companies must be able to quickly shift suppliers and, if necessary, even customers. Effective and localized stock management is crucial, a lesson that the COVID crisis taught us well. The pandemic underscored the vulnerability of global supply chains, and businesses that lacked the ability to pivot quickly were hit hardest. In addition, businesses must embrace tool flexibility, such as digitization and the ability to tap into global talent pools. With remote work and digital platforms becoming more widespread, the potential to hire the best talent, no matter where they are located, can be a game changer for companies willing to embrace it – and this may remain compatible with a well-thought ‘return to the office’ policy.
Success will also require the capacity to anticipate and adapt to the most dynamic sectors. Will the tech bubble burst? Will governments have the will and the means to invest in their defense capabilities? And as the U.S. economic hegemony seems to have strengthened in the wake of China’s crisis, will it continue to endure? These are some of the pressing questions that businesses must consider in their strategic planning. The ability to anticipate market trends, adapt quickly to changing circumstances, and remain agile will separate the winners from the losers in this new landscape.
This is not just a matter of strategy but also of mindset. In a digital world, it can feel like all the information we need is readily available, coming directly to us. Yet, it’s essential to stay proactive, continuously seeking out weak signals and early indicators of change. Strengthening relationships with suppliers and clients will become increasingly valuable in a world that is more virtual than ever. Human connection, built on quality interactions, will hold growing importance as businesses navigate an increasingly impersonal and digitalized world. Similarly, nurturing relationships with employees will be critical, not just for retaining talent, but also for detecting the first signs—whether positive or negative—of shifts in the economy. Employee satisfaction and engagement will become key differentiators as companies battle for talent in an increasingly competitive global marketplace.
In an era of ongoing disruption, those who can adapt and remain flexible will be best positioned to thrive. This era demands resilience, creativity, and a forward-thinking approach. The world has changed, and businesses must change with it, continuously evolving to meet new challenges and capitalize on emerging opportunities. Companies that embrace this tectonic shift, fostering a culture of innovation, agility, and human connection, will not only survive but flourish in the new global landscape. The ability to foresee and act on changes, while maintaining strong relationships and a flexible approach, will be the defining factor between success and failure in the years to come. It is within this landscape of shifting fault lines that the most resilient and visionary businesses will rise to the top.
Glad to be back, let’s stay in touch!